218  
FXUS01 KWBC 152011  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
411 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018  
 
VALID 00Z WED MAY 16 2018 - 00Z FRI MAY 18 2018  
 
...A WET AND STORMY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN  
U.S., WITH FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC  
STATES...  
 
...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF  
THE NATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS...  
 
...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS  
OF THE GREAT PLAINS...  
 
A WET AND STORMY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN  
U.S. THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD  
INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY  
FLASH FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY EVENING, WITH  
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC  
REGION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ALSO, A WEAK  
DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD LEAD  
TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION  
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY. WPC'S EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS AND SPC'S CONVECTIVE  
OUTLOOKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.  
 
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE  
NATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW LIFTS  
NORTHEASTWARD OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW  
BEGINS TO EDGE INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA.  
 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH  
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY  
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR  
STORMS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER NORTH TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP  
OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA.  
 
 
GERHARDT  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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