020  
FXUS01 KWBC 160754  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
354 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2018  
 
VALID 12Z WED MAY 16 2018 - 12Z FRI MAY 18 2018  
 
...A WET AND STORMY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN  
U.S., WITH FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER  
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES...  
 
...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF  
THE NATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS...  
 
...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS  
OF THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY...  
 
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL STAY IN A PERSISTENT, WET AND STORMY  
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS  
SOUTHWARD INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MOST FAVORABLE  
REGION FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN STRETCH OF  
THE OHIO RIVER TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ALONG THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO LIFT  
OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED  
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS TODAY.  
 
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY  
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH FAVORABLE  
CONDITIONS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD  
SHIFT FARTHER NORTH TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVER NORTH  
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT  
RISK COVERING THIS AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO, HEAVY RAINFALL  
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. WPC HAS BROAD  
AREA OF MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH SLIGHT RISKS FOCUSING  
OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.  
 
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE  
NATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW LIFTS  
NORTHEASTWARD OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW  
BEGINS TO EDGE INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA.  
 
CAMPBELL/GERHARDT  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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