089  
FXUS01 KWBC 162000  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU MAY 17 2018 - 00Z SAT MAY 19 2018  
 
...A WET AND STORMY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN  
U.S., WITH FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER  
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES...  
 
...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF  
THE NATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS...  
 
...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS  
OF THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY...  
 
PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC  
WILL STAY IN A PERSISTENT WET AND STORMY PATTERN THROUGH THE REST  
OF THE WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO  
INTERACTS WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEAR A WEAK  
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES  
AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS REGION IN  
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
FRIDAY.  
 
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES THROUGH ALOFT. CONDITIONS  
MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, AND THE  
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THIS REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.ALSO, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL  
ALSO BE LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. WPC HAS BROAD AREA  
OF MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH SLIGHT RISKS FOCUSING OVER  
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.  
 
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE  
NATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW LIFTS  
NORTHEASTWARD OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW  
BEGINS TO EDGE INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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