778  
FXUS01 KWBC 170745  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
345 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2018  
 
VALID 12Z THU MAY 17 2018 - 12Z SAT MAY 19 2018  
 
...A PERSISTENT WET PATTERN ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. WITH  
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND...  
 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO  
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROPICAL  
MOISTURE TRANSPORTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND  
INTERACTS WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS  
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL  
BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING  
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS REGION  
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
FRIDAY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK ON SATURDAY EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE  
MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  
 
ANOTHER ACTIVE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ALONG THE  
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THIS AREA WILL HAVE  
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS GULF MOISTURE LIFTS  
NORTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS- ONE DROPPING  
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ONE LIFTING INTO THE  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGION; THEREFORE THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS IDENTIFIED THIS SECTOR OF THE COUNTRY AS  
HAVING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPC  
WEBPAGE FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. WITHIN  
THESE STORMS, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WPC HAS  
HIGHLIGHTED A BROAD AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL, HOWEVER THE BEST AREA WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR WESTERN  
NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY AND NEAR THE NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHEAST SOUTH  
DAKOTA BORDER ON SATURDAY.  
 
MEANWHILE OUT WEST, ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE AS A WEAKENING  
UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO  
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST, WITH  
LOCALIZED ENHANCED ACTIVITY ALONG THE FAVORED TERRAIN.  
 
CAMPBELL  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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