749  
FXUS01 KWBC 171843  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
243 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2018  
 
VALID 00Z FRI MAY 18 2018 - 00Z SUN MAY 20 2018  
 
...A PERSISTENT WET PATTERN FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL  
RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...  
 
...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS...  
 
THE NEVER-ENDING WET PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE  
AS A STUBBORN BOUNDARY REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, BUT  
SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE  
TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY THIS WEEKEND. THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE FROM THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS TROPICAL  
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC INTERACTS  
WITH THE FRONT. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK  
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS/FLASH FLOODING.  
 
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT CONTINUING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE NORTHWEST UNDERNEATH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WITH  
LOCALIZED ENHANCED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FAVORED TERRAIN AS  
WELL AS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS. BY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS MOISTURE STREAMING  
NORTHWARD INTERACTS WITH TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS -- THE FIRST BEING  
THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND A  
SECOND LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT  
RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY  
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY  
TOMORROW. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, HEAVY TO  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SAGGING NORTHERN  
STREAM BOUNDARY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
TONIGHT, AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW INTO  
SATURDAY. SEE THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER FOR DETAILS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER, AND CONSULT  
WPCS GRAPHICS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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