072  
FXUS01 KWBC 241954  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
354 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2018  
 
VALID 00Z FRI MAY 25 2018 - 00Z SUN MAY 27 2018  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH  
SATURDAY MORNING...  
 
...A WET WEEKEND WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE SOUTHEAST AS HEAVY RAIN  
SPREADS NORTHWARD FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF...  
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN OBSERVED DRIFTING ACROSS YUCATAN  
PENINSULA AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS  
NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FLORIDA AND OTHER SOUTHEAST  
STATES WILL HAVE LONG PERIODS OF RAINFALL AS THIS APPROACHES.  
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY MATERIALIZE AS THE EVENT IS UNDERWAY.  
WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT THIS POINT,  
FORECAST CERTAINTY WILL RELY ON THE CONFIDENCE OF THE TRACK THIS  
SYSTEM WILL TAKE.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL  
AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP GENERATE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONDITIONS  
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. SPC  
HAS AN AREA FROM THE NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER SOUTH TO  
EASTERN COLORADO AS HAVING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON  
FRIDAY, THEN SHIFTING TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  
 
A FRONT NEAR NORTHERN MAINE WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE  
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA INTO  
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. THE COASTAL  
RAIN AND INLAND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND INTO PARTS OF  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT CONTINUING  
INTO FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY. BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW  
DEVELOPS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN  
REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.  
 
CAMPBELL/ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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