323  
FXUS01 KWBC 260811  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
411 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SAT MAY 26 2018 - 12Z MON MAY 28 2018  
 
...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE HIGH  
PLAINS...  
 
...SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEAST...  
 
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...  
 
AS A CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN, A SURFACE FRONT WILL  
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY IN PLACE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS  
COULD BECOME SEVERE--THUS THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT  
RISK OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BY  
SUNDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTS EASTWARD AS THE CUTOFF  
LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN  
COVERAGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BY  
MONDAY MORNING, SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND  
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.  
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL NORTHERLY PATH  
FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.  
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM ALBERTO WILL BE PULLED ACROSS  
FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
DEVELOP THIS MORNING MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST AND EXPAND ACROSS MOST  
OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION,  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS ALBERTO MOVES CLOSER TO  
THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY, RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT FLORIDA  
INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. BY MONDAY MORNING, AN AXIS OF HEAVIER  
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. FLASH  
FLOODING IS A THREAT FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND--WITH  
A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE  
MOBILE, ALABAMA AREA. REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. FOR  
SPECIFICS ON FLASH FLOODING, PLEASE SEE WPC'S EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH THIS  
SYSTEM, CHECK THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (WWW.SPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV).  
FOR THE LATEST ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ALBERTO, SEE THE  
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (WWW.HURRICANES.GOV).  
 
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL VARY IN TERMS  
OF RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY DEPENDING ON THE REGION. THE SOUTHEAST  
WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE WET CONDITIONS FROM  
ALBERTO. THE GREAT BASIN AND WEST COAST WILL ALSO BE BELOW NORMAL  
AS A COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP ACROSS THE  
AREA. AREAS FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE  
WEEKEND! EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THESE AREAS TO BE IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WEST TEXAS CAN ALSO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO  
REACH THE CENTURY MARK--WITH THESE TEMPERATURES BEING 10 TO 15  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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