404  
FXUS01 KWBC 271938  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
337 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018  
 
VALID 00Z MON MAY 28 2018 - 00Z WED MAY 30 2018  
 
...SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL SPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEY...  
   
..SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
 
 
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK FROM THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...  
 
BASED ON THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER,  
SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A  
TROPICAL STORM SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE,  
AND CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH ALABAMA AND INTO THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME, BANDS OF  
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP  
SOUTH TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS  
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION FROM THE FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE INTO ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE, WITH A SECONDARY  
AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND  
INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. A SLIGHT TO  
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS HIGHLIGHTED  
IN WPCS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF FLORIDA,  
THE SOUTHEAST, THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES, AND INTO PORTIONS OF  
CENTRAL TENNESSEE. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS,  
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAINLY ACROSS  
FLORIDA, AS PER THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION  
CENTER. FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY  
FORECASTS OF ALBERTO, PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE  
CENTER (WWW.HURRICANES.GOV).  
 
FARTHER WEST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE PLAINS STATES  
TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO  
THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND  
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS  
HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AS WELL AS  
BACK INTO WYOMING, WITHIN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER. WPC ALSO HAS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE HIGH  
PLAINS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW  
ITSELF. BY MONDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, STRONG RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO  
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP RECORD WARMTH IN THE FORECAST THROUGH  
AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL  
INTO THE 90S, AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IN  
SOME PLACES. THIS IS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME  
OF THE YEAR, AND RECORDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER  
MIDWEST WILL BE CHALLENGED OR BROKEN. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE  
FOR SOME PLACES ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND  
FAR NORTHWEST IOWA. BY TUESDAY, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS  
THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW EDGES EASTWARD, WHICH SHOULD BRING A  
SLIGHT COOLDOWN TO THE REGION.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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