568  
FXUS01 KWBC 280741  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
341 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2018  
 
VALID 12Z MON MAY 28 2018 - 12Z WED MAY 30 2018  
 
...SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE  
FLASH FLOODING FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD...  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE DRY LINE STRETCHING  
OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...  
 
...MORE RECORD HEAT EXPECTED FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TOWARD THE OZARKS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...  
 
BASED ON THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST,  
SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE  
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY WITH INTENSITY DROPPING OFF  
THEREAFTER GIVEN LAND INTERACTIONS TO THE CIRCULATION. AS THIS  
OCCURS, EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SURF TO ACCOMPANY THE HEAVY  
RAINFALL THREAT. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL  
EXIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., PARTICULARLY WHERE APPRECIABLE  
HEATING OCCURS WHICH WOULD BOLSTER INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE.  
HOWEVER, THE MOST PROMINENT THREAT WILL LIKELY BE THE DRENCHING  
TROPICAL RAINS WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE FROM THE  
WESTERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF ALABAMA.  
AN ADDITIONAL MAXIMA IS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS GIVEN  
LOCAL UPSLOPE EFFECTS. THESE MENTIONED LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT THE  
BEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE, WHILE GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD  
BE MODEST IN COMPARISON TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST, IT WILL LIKELY  
REMAIN QUITE WET OVER THE MID-SOUTH UP TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO  
VALLEY AS WELL AS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.  
 
IN ADVANCE OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN U.S., A  
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRY LINE OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION. MULTIPLE IMPULSES  
WITHIN THE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL BE FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY AS THE SURFACE WARMS WITH DAYTIME  
HEATING. MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE ON  
THE DRY LINE WHERE NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS NOTED IN  
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. AT THE ONSET OF  
STORM DEVELOPMENT, THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND  
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES BEFORE EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING  
WIND THREAT INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR LOCATIONS  
DOWNSTREAM. BY TUESDAY, THE THREAT AREA WILL HAVE ADJUSTED TO THE  
EAST WITH A PRIMARY FOCUS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA UP INTO SOUTHERN  
NEBRASKA.  
 
A WAVY WEST-EAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY SET UP FROM  
SOUTH DAKOTA EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES  
REGION. SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE, ABUNDANT HEAT WILL REMAIN THE  
NORM WITH DAILY RECORD TEMPERATURES LIKELY. DEPARTURES FROM  
CLIMATOLOGY ARE IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS  
IN THE 90S AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. EXPECTED  
HIGHS ON MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS  
MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL WITH SOME SLIGHT COOLING LIKELY BY THE  
FOLLOWING DAY. EVENTUALLY THE RECORD HEAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR TUESDAY WITH A PARTICULAR FOCUS ACROSS THE  
LONE STAR STATE. WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE OVER  
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG THE RIO  
GRANDE RIVER.  
 
RUBIN-OSTER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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