443  
FXUS01 KWBC 282007  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
406 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2018  
 
VALID 00Z TUE MAY 29 2018 - 00Z THU MAY 31 2018  
 
...SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL CONTINUE SPREADING HEAVY  
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND  
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY...  
 
...SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...  
 
...RECORD HEAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR  
PARTS OF TEXAS...  
 
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE  
CENTER, SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WILL MAKE LANDFALL THIS  
AFTERNOON IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE  
STORM EXPECTED AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER ALABAMA AND INTO THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY.  
BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR TORNADOES AS  
WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CENTER OF  
CIRCULATION AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO  
VALLEYS. WPC CONTINUES TO MONITOR A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR  
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, EASTERN AND CENTRAL  
ALABAMA, AND FAR WESTERN GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK IS  
HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO  
VALLEY TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY AXIS OF RAINFALL  
MAXIMA IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS  
AND THE CAROLINAS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF  
ALBERTO'S CIRCULATION. ELSEWHERE, GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD  
BE MODEST IN COMPARISON TO THE GULF COAST INTO THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY, BUT IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE WET OVER ALL OF THE DEEP  
SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC.  
 
IN ADVANCE OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN, A  
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT AND DRY LINE OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL  
HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION  
TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL  
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE  
LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING, MOVING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA  
AND CENTRAL KANSAS BY TUESDAY. GENERAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN  
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER TEXAS WILL  
KEEP RECORD BREAKING WARMTH IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK.  
AFTERNOON HIGH VALUES COULD BE IN THE HIGH 90S TO LOW 100S, WHICH  
IS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE VERY WARM, POTENTIALLY  
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY SHOULD  
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT AFTERNOON VALUES ARE  
STILL EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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