691  
FXUS01 KWBC 290755  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
354 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018  
 
VALID 12Z TUE MAY 29 2018 - 12Z THU MAY 31 2018  
 
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FROM  
THE DEEP SOUTH NORTHWARD INTO VAST SECTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE/OHIO  
VALLEYS AND INTERIOR CAROLINAS...  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA/KANSAS  
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA TODAY...  
 
...RECORD OVERNIGHT WARMTH LIKELY GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF  
ALBERTO'S FORECAST TRACK...  
 
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL LATE YESTERDAY EVENING OVER THE FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE, ALBERTO HAS WEAKENED TO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION AND  
SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ALL TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY LATER THIS  
EVENING. REGARDLESS OF THESE CHANGES IN CHARACTERIZATION, IT WILL  
REMAIN A HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCER WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FLASH FLOOD  
RISK. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL FROM NORTHERN  
SECTIONS OF ALABAMA/GEORGIA NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN  
TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS GENERALLY FOLLOWS  
THE PATH OF ALBERTO WHERE DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ERUPT NEAR  
ITS CENTER, PARTICULARLY WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS IN  
AREAS WHICH RECEIVE MORE SOLAR INSOLATION. AN ADDITIONAL THREAT  
AREA WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS GIVEN FURTHER LIFT AIDED  
BY THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. GIVEN TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER  
THESE MENTIONED REGIONS, INTENSE RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF  
FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE SOILS ARE ALREADY  
SATURATED. FOR THE LATEST STORM TOTALS FROM ALBERTO, PLEASE VISIT  
THE LATEST STORM SUMMARY AT:  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/NFDSCC5.HTML. ELSEWHERE ACROSS  
THE EASTERN SEABOARD, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH  
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING  
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THE  
PARENT SURFACE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE, A SERIES OF OTHER  
CONVERGENCE AXES WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY  
TODAY OVER LARGE SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. BASED ON THE LATEST  
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, AN ENHANCED RISK IS IN  
PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/KANSAS WITH ALL THREATS  
POSSIBLE. EXPECTED SLOW CELL MOTIONS SHOULD ALSO AFFORD A THREAT  
FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER THIS MENTIONED REGION.  
 
FARTHER WEST, IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO  
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN  
INTO THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT  
FORECAST TO BE AS PROMINENT AS THE GREAT PLAINS, THERE IS A RISK  
FOR SOME SEVERE CRITERIA THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN  
IDAHO INTO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. OVERALL, EXPECTED RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS ARE NOT TREMENDOUS BY ANY MEANS GIVEN A RATHER LIMITED  
MOISTURE POOL.  
 
CONCLUDING THE MONTH OF MAY, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE DAILY  
RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. FIRST CONSIDERING AFTERNOON HIGHS,  
WIDESPREAD NUMBERS BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO  
GRANDE RIVER AND OVER WEST TEXAS SHOULD SPARK SOME RECORDS.  
HOWEVER, ON THE LARGER SCALE, SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD  
BREAKING NUMBERS WHEN CONSIDERING WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS. IN  
PARTICULAR, TWO AREAS OF THE COUNTRY SEEM TO BE IN THIS BOAT, THE  
UPPER MIDWEST AS AS WELL LOCATIONS EAST OF ALBERTO'S CYCLONE  
TRACK. NUMBERS SEEM TO DEPART BY AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM  
CLIMATOLOGY IN MOST CASES.  
 
RUBIN-OSTER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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