849  
FXUS01 KWBC 291957  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
356 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018  
 
VALID 00Z WED MAY 30 2018 - 00Z FRI JUN 01 2018  
 
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FROM  
THE DEEP SOUTH NORTHWARD INTO VAST SECTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE/OHIO  
VALLEYS AND INTERIOR CAROLINAS...  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA/KANSAS  
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA TODAY...  
 
...RECORD OVERNIGHT WARMTH LIKELY GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF  
ALBERTO'S FORECAST TRACK...  
 
ALTHOUGH ALBERTO IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH  
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY IT IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
MUCH OF EASTERN GULF STATES, SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC AND TENNESSEE  
VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN FROM ALBERTO OVER THIS AREA WARRANTED A  
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THE INCREASED THREAT FOR  
FLASH FLOODING. AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM LIFTS IN THE OHIO  
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY THE AREA OF SLIGHT RISK EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO  
THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL  
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS, IS  
LIKELY TO FALL FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ALABAMA/GEORGIA NORTHWARD  
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. FOR THE  
LATEST STORM TOTALS FROM ALBERTO, PLEASE VISIT THE LATEST STORM  
SUMMARY AT: WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/NFDSCC5.HTML.  
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD  
CONTINUE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
MULTIPLE LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE  
PARENT SURFACE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE, A SERIES OF OTHER  
CONVERGENCE AXES WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY  
TODAY OVER LARGE SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. BASED ON THE LATEST  
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, AN ENHANCED RISK IS IN  
PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/KANSAS WITH ALL THREATS  
POSSIBLE. EXPECTED SLOW CELL MOTIONS SHOULD ALSO AFFORD A THREAT  
FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER THIS MENTIONED REGION.  
 
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW,  
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHWEST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST  
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SLOW-MOVING FRONT MOVES  
EASTWARD. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE ON WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG TO  
SEVERE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF IDAHO AND WESTERN  
MONTANA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THIS REGION IDENTIFIED AS  
HAVING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  
 
THE MONTH WILL COME TO A CLOSE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR  
A MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY- WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE DAILY RECORDS TO  
BE BROKEN. FIRST CONSIDERING AFTERNOON HIGHS, WIDESPREAD NUMBERS  
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND OVER  
WEST TEXAS SHOULD SPARK SOME RECORDS. HOWEVER, ON THE LARGER  
SCALE, SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD BREAKING NUMBERS WHEN  
CONSIDERING WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS. IN PARTICULAR, TWO AREAS OF THE  
COUNTRY SEEM TO BE IN THIS BOAT, THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AS WELL  
LOCATIONS EAST OF ALBERTO'S CYCLONE TRACK. NUMBERS SEEM TO DEPART  
BY AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM CLIMATOLOGY IN MOST CASES.  
 
CAMPBELL/RUBIN-OSTER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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