729  
FXUS01 KWBC 300759  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
358 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018  
 
VALID 12Z WED MAY 30 2018 - 12Z FRI JUN 01 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ALONG THE TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION  
ALBERTO WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS THE  
INTERIOR CAROLINAS...  
 
...PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS SHOULD GENERALLY FOCUS IN  
WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A SEPARATE AREA BACK INTO IDAHO/MONTANA...  
 
...VAST WARMTH IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD  
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S...  
 
CURRENTLY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, ALBERTO CONTINUES TO LIFT  
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN BORDER OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. IT  
REMAINS A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER AS WELL  
AS IN ITS PERIPHERY AS EVIDENCED BY THE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. A SEPARATE AXIS  
OF ENHANCED RAINFALL ALSO HAS FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS  
GIVEN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE  
ACCOMPANYING THIS SLOWLY WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE, INTENSE  
RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A  
POSSIBILITY, PARTICULARLY ALONG ALBERTO'S FORECAST TRACK.  
LIKEWISE, WITH A HISTORY OF SUCH ISSUES ALREADY NOTED IN NORTH  
CAROLINA, EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION.  
ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF ALBERTO WILL TAKE IT INTO THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES BY LATER THIS EVENING, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY  
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION.  
 
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ARCING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM  
TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD WESTERN OKLAHOMA, THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE  
CORRIDOR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE LATEST STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, ALL OF THE USUAL THREATS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SET UP MIGRATING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER  
OHIO/UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY THE FOLLOWING DAY. ELSEWHERE, A  
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH SITTING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL  
CONTINUE TO CHURN OUT A SERIES OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL  
GREAT BASIN INTO THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL ENSUE OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN IDAHO WITH  
GRADUAL PROGRESSION INTO CENTRAL TO EASTERN MONTANA. DAMAGING  
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH SOME OF  
THE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  
 
WHILE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED  
ALONG THE WEST COAST GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND  
ENHANCED MARINE LAYER, IT WILL TRULY BE THE CONVERSE FOR LOCATIONS  
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY NOTED WITH THE WARM  
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES GIVEN RATHER HIGH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN  
PLACE DUE TO ALBERTO'S PRESENCE. AS SUCH, WIDESPREAD DAILY RECORDS  
ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN EACH MORNING ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.  
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST COULD STAY NEAR 80 DEGREES  
TONIGHT. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT AFFORD SUCH  
WIDESPREAD RECORDS, THE LONE STAR STATE WILL IN FACT SUPPORT SUCH  
OCCURRENCES AS READINGS SOAR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. EXPECTED  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS WEST  
TEXAS AND ALONG THE RED RIVER WHICH WOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES  
ABOVE LATE MAY CLIMATOLOGY.  
 
RUBIN-OSTER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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