609  
FXUS01 KWBC 301954  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
354 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU MAY 31 2018 - 00Z SAT JUN 02 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ALONG THE TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION  
ALBERTO WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS THE  
INTERIOR CAROLINAS...  
 
...PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS SHOULD GENERALLY FOCUS IN  
WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A SEPARATE AREA BACK INTO IDAHO/MONTANA...  
 
...VAST WARMTH IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD  
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S...  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT  
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS ALBERTO CONTINUES TO  
TRACKS NORTHWARD. ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED  
AS A RESULT OF ALBERTO, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A  
VAST AREA ENCOMPASSING WESTERN KENTUCKY TO WISCONSIN AND EAST TO  
OHIO HAS AN INCREASED RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING.  
ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN NATURE BY EARLY  
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. A SEPARATE  
AXIS OF ENHANCED RAINFALL ALSO HAS FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR  
CAROLINAS GIVEN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS. GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL  
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS SLOWLY WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE,  
INTENSE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS WILL  
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY, PARTICULARLY ALONG ALBERTO'S FORECAST TRACK.  
LIKEWISE, WITH A HISTORY OF SUCH ISSUES ALREADY NOTED IN NORTH  
CAROLINA, EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION.  
ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF ALBERTO WILL TAKE IT INTO THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES BY LATER THIS EVENING, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY  
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION.  
 
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR  
HEAVY RAINFALL, WILL FOCUS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL  
PLAINS AND MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WARM GULF  
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OVER A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
ADDITIONALLY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN WILL  
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WPC HAS A  
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN ALONG A WEST-EAST AXIS FROM  
SPANNING FROM KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER TO THE TENNESSEE/NORTH  
CAROLINA BORDER AND FOR MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SPC  
HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE SAME AREAS AS WPC THROUGH FRIDAY  
MORNING, WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS/CENTRAL  
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS THE BOTH  
RISKS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER, REFER TO THE WPC AND SPC WEBPAGES.  
 
MUCH OF THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE  
UPPER TROUGH AND ENHANCED MARINE LAYER. MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE  
EAST COAST WILL BE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE  
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.  
WIDESPREAD DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN EACH MORNING  
ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND  
LOWER GREAT LAKES. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST COULD STAY  
NEAR 80 DEGREES TONIGHT. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT  
AFFORD SUCH WIDESPREAD RECORDS, THE LONE STAR STATE WILL IN FACT  
SUPPORT SUCH OCCURRENCES AS READINGS SOAR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK.  
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE  
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND ALONG THE RED RIVER WHICH WOULD BE 10 TO 15  
DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY CLIMATOLOGY.  
 
CAMPBELL/RUBIN-OSTER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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