615  
FXUS01 KWBC 310800  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2018  
 
VALID 12Z THU MAY 31 2018 - 12Z SAT JUN 02 2018  
 
...SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING TO IMPACT AREAS OF  
THE LOWER OHIO/UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY...  
 
...WET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC FAVORING  
ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF FLASH FLOODING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES  
EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES BY FRIDAY...  
 
...OVERNIGHT WARMTH TO LEAD TO MORE DAILY RECORDS EAST OF THE  
ROCKIES...  
 
WHILE WHAT REMAINS OF ALBERTO PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY  
THIS MORNING, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARD A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX  
CURRENTLY RUSHING THROUGH OKLAHOMA. THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD  
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A  
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ATMOSPHERE TO WORK WITH. AS SUCH,  
EXPECT A NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT DURING THE DIURNAL  
HEATING CYCLE WITH MANY BECOMING SEVERE ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHERN  
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO/UPPER TENNESSEE  
VALLEYS. BASED ON THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK, DAMAGING  
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH A  
COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OF COURSE FLASH FLOODING  
MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE SLOWER MOVING CONVECTIVE STORMS.  
 
AN INCREDIBLY MOIST PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN  
U.S., MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE TO THE PRESENCE OF ALBERTO AND ITS  
TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED. DAILY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BREW IN THE  
PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING, AIDED BY ANY IMPULSES TO  
THE WEST WHICH MAY SPARK A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT. MOST  
RECENTLY, THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION HAS BEEN PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING  
EVENTS IN THIS PATTERN WITH ELLICOTT CITY, MD, CHARLOTTESVILLE,  
VA, AND UPSTATE NORTH CAROLINA ALL BEING IMPACTED THE PAST WEEK.  
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE SATURATED SOILS COULD  
LEAD TO FURTHER CONCERNS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH A MORE  
POTENT, SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS  
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SUCH HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS SHOULD PICK UP WITH  
MANY OF THE MENTIONED REGIONS OUTLINED IN THE LATEST EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL OUTLOOK.  
 
A RATHER ROBUST UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST WILL BE A DRIVER FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ANYWHERE FROM  
UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND  
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION,  
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY OVER SUCH REGIONS OF THE GREAT  
PLAINS WHERE MUCH BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER,  
FURTHER BACK IN MONTANA, CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ABNORMALLY WET FOR A  
WHILE THUS RAISING FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS IN MANY LOCATIONS.  
ADDITIONALLY, A MULTI-DAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS OUTLINED FROM  
CENTRAL MONTANA EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS DOWN TO NEBRASKA THROUGH  
EARLY SATURDAY. THE CURRENT DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES AN  
ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THESE GREAT  
PLAINS STATES.  
 
THE COOL SPOTS IN THE COUNTRY WILL BE ALONG THE WEST COAST GIVEN  
THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS REMAINING UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW. WITH GRADUAL EASTWARD PUSH OF THE UPPER  
TROUGH, AREAS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHOULD SEE A NOTABLE  
LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES AS WELL. HOWEVER, IN TERMS OF RECORD  
BREAKING NUMBERS, IT WILL BE THE ANOMALOUS OVERNIGHT WARMTH  
GENERALLY EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WARM, MUGGY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS  
FOSTERED BY THE HIGH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO  
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 70S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE  
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. A COUPLE DOZEN LOCATIONS EAST OF  
THE ROCKIES MAY SEE OVERNIGHT RECORDS WITH ANOMALIES GENERALLY IN  
THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE EACH DAY.  
 
RUBIN-OSTER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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