039  
FXUS01 KWBC 010757  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
357 AM EDT FRI JUN 01 2018  
 
VALID 12Z FRI JUN 01 2018 - 12Z SUN JUN 03 2018  
 
...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND  
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY  
SATURDAY...  
 
...CONTINUED WET CONDITIONS TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING A CONCERN  
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE WEEKEND...  
 
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...  
 
...WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COULD BREAK RECORDS FOR MANY  
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...  
 
A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WILL SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THE  
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH MOVING INTO THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE A KEY FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THESE REGIONS, WITH THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTING A SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FROM FAR  
NORTHERN KANSAS TO THE DAKOTAS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS  
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND, PARTICULARLY  
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, BUT A FEW  
TORNADOES ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE POOLING  
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO LEAD TO A FLASH FLOOD RISK AS WELL,  
AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS. THE SEVERE  
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT  
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY.  
 
AN INCREDIBLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE THE NEXT  
FEW DAYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERNEATH OF PERSISTENT  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH IN THE  
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL  
KEEP FLASH FLOODING A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY  
FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN EVENTS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT, WPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE  
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING.  
 
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH  
PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DRY LINE WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED TO  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON FRIDAY, AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE  
LATEST FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION  
CENTER. WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE  
REGIONS TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THE WEEKEND THOUGH AS  
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  
 
AS FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY, LOCATIONS FROM THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE EASTERN STATES WILL BE  
QUITE WARM AND MUGGY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON BOTH  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS WARMTH HOWEVER WILL  
BE THE VERY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN  
THE 70S EXPECTED WHICH COULD BREAK RECORDS FOR OVERNIGHT HIGH  
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR DOZENS OF LOCATIONS.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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