585
FXUS04 KWBC 031855
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EDT SUN JUN 03 2018
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 04/0000 UTC THRU JUN 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
..MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST/GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
A MEANDERING LOW OVER CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE AIR
COLUMN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES, WITH
SOME AREAS CONTINUING TO SEE HEAVY AMOUNTS ACCUMULATE QUICKLY. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AS A UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DRIVE
THE LOW OFFSHORE.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THE
SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MON. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIRECT A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE INTO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MON, WITH THE GFS
SHOWING PWS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES ON MON. THIS MOISTURE
INTERACTING THE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM
LOW CLOSING OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
ENHANCED DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING A GREATER
THREAT FOR HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES FURTHER EAST INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS, RAINFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK.
..SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THE MID LEVELS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT HAS SETTLED SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS BEGIN CHANNEL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SPREADING EAST INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH PW ANOMALIES
INCREASING TO 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, THERE REMAINS
A GOOD MODEL SIGNAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO RANGES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT AS THE
HI-RES MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY
CONVECTION DIMINISHES AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
WHILE THE NAM CONEST SHOWS WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, THE HWR-NMMB SHOWS
CONVECTION DIMINISHING MUCH SOONER WITH ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT
AMOUNTS. WPC QPF REFLECTS A COMPROMISE SIMILAR TO THE HREF MEAN,
MAINTAINING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS ALONG AN AXIS
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST, MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS, WITH THE NAM
CONEST THIS TIME BEING THE MUCH DRIER SOLUTION. WITH LIMITED
CONFIDENCE, CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE HREF MEAN THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
PEREIRA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page