111  
FXUS01 KWBC 140801  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2018  
 
VALID 12Z THU JUN 14 2018 - 12Z SAT JUN 16 2018  
 
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH FLASH FLOODING, WILL  
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY...  
 
...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY  
FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...  
 
...MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM BUD MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS  
OF THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY...  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL DECREASE  
THIS MORNING AS THE CENTRAL LOW AND ASSOCIATES COLD FRONT PULLS  
OFFSHORE; ALTHOUGH NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A DRAPING  
COLD FRONT DESCENDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE  
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE  
REGION. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT AS A WARM  
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL PROVIDE  
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN  
REGION TO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT  
CROSSES THE ROCKIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPE FOR STRONG CONVECTION  
FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER AS IDENTIFIED MUCH OF THIS AREA AS HAVING A  
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVER STORMS, WITH A SMALLER SECTION HAVING AN  
ENHANCED RISK, WHILE WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH  
FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
SEE THE OUTLOOKS FROM THESE TWO CENTERS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON  
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,  
RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY WARM, WITH  
AFTERNOON HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE,  
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  
 
ELSEWHERE, WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
GREAT BASIN WILL CREATE FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
NUMEROUS RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND  
WESTERN COLORADO. MEANWHILE, THE HEATWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST  
SHOULD SUBSIDE AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM BUD BEGINS  
IMPACTING PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. REFER TO  
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING  
THE TRACK AND SPECIFIC IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM BUD.  
 
CAMPBELL/SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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