979  
FXUS01 KWBC 151827  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
226 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SAT JUN 16 2018 - 00Z MON JUN 18 2018  
 
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS  
OF FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...  
   
..WET CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHWEST
 
 
...DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND OVER  
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND SPREADING TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT  
WEEK...  
 
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO IMPACT A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN  
PLAINS AND EAST OVER THE TO UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS  
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT UP ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED  
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEVERE DURING  
ESPECIALLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AND THERE WILL ALSO BE  
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE MULTI-DAY THREAT OF HEAVY  
RAINFALL AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. IN  
FACT, LOCALLY SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED AND  
ESPECIALLY AREAS OF MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA  
OF MICHIGAN. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND WEATHER PREDICTION  
CENTER ACCORDINGLY HAVE ISSUED SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR THE  
RESPECTIVE HAZARDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.  
 
MEANWHILE, TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE HIGH  
HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDING AS MANY AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100  
DEGREES. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, THE HUMIDITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH,  
AND A COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL DRIVE DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES  
THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL AS HOT AS 105 DEGREES. SOME MAJOR MIDWEST  
CITIES TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS INCLUDE MINNEAPOLIS, MN; CHICAGO,  
IL; AND ST. LOUIS, MO. SOME OF THIS HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE  
ARRIVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY INCLUDING NEW  
ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC.  
 
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION  
BUD WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS OF MEXICO AND  
INTO AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WHERE IT HAS BEEN VERY WARM AND  
DRY OF LATE. MORE SPECIFICALLY, THE REMNANTS OF BUD ARE EXPECTED  
TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN  
ARIZONA, SOUTHEAST UTAH, COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE  
ARRIVAL IS WELL AHEAD OF THE TYPICAL ONSET OF THE MONSOON SEASON,  
BE IT SHOULD BE LARGELY BENEFICIAL AS IT WILL HELP TO ALLEVIATE  
SOME OF THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND WILDFIRE CONCERNS. NEVERTHELESS,  
THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING  
AS WELL.  
 
THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPING ALSO FOR THE GULF COAST  
STATES AND ESPECIALLY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BY  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF  
OF MEXICO AND THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HELP TO RING  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LOCALLY SEVERAL  
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND THIS AREAS WILL NEED TO ALSO  
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.  
 
ORRISON  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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