949  
FXUS01 KWBC 160756  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
355 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 16 2018 - 12Z MON JUN 18 2018  
 
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS  
OF FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...  
   
..WET CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHWEST
 
 
...DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND OVER  
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND SPREADING TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT  
WEEK...  
 
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL HAVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY  
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE  
LIFT UP ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. ABUNDANT  
MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP CONVECTION FIRING  
OVER THIS REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SWATH  
FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AS HAVING A  
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER - WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT TODAY  
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW PROGRESSION OF  
THIS FRONT AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, THERE WILL BE AN  
INCREASED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN NEARLY THE SAME LOCATIONS  
OF THE EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER. WPC HAS A MODERATE EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL OUTLOOK IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE  
SURROUNDING AREA TODAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK SPANNING MUCH OF THE  
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.  
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES MAY OCCUR ACROSS AREAS OF  
MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.  
 
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN  
AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AS WELL AS, THE MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 90S TO LOW  
100S AND WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY, THIS MAY INCREASE THE RISK FOR  
HEAT EXHAUSTION OR STOKE FOR SUSCEPTIBLE INDIVIDUALS. SOME MAJOR  
MIDWEST CITIES TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS INCLUDE MINNEAPOLIS, MN;  
CHICAGO, IL; AND ST. LOUIS, MO. SOME OF THIS HIGH HEAT AND  
HUMIDITY WILL BE ARRIVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY  
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC.  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING HOWEVER MOISTURE  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT INTO THE  
DESERT SOUTHWEST. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS AREAS  
OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA, SOUTHEAST UTAH, COLORADO AND NEW  
MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE ARRIVAL IS WELL AHEAD OF THE TYPICAL ONSET  
OF THE MONSOON SEASON, BE IT SHOULD BE LARGELY BENEFICIAL AS IT  
WILL HELP TO ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND WILDFIRE  
CONCERNS. NEVERTHELESS, THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE  
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL. WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION.  
 
THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPING ALSO FOR THE GULF COAST  
STATES AND ESPECIALLY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BY  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF  
OF MEXICO AND THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HELP TO RING  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LOCALLY SEVERAL  
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND THIS AREAS WILL NEED TO ALSO  
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.  
 
CAMPBELL  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page