791  
FXUS01 KWBC 161830  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
225 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SUN JUN 17 2018 - 00Z TUE JUN 19 2018  
 
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS  
OF FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...  
 
...VERY WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST,  
SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...  
 
...DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND OVER MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND SPREADING TO THE EAST COAST  
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...  
 
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER STATES OVER THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS, INCLUDING A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND EAST OVER TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT  
LAKES REGION AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT UP ALONG A  
FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS  
MAY SEVERE DURING ESPECIALLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AND  
THERE WILL ALSO BE CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE MULTI-DAY  
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT DOWN TO  
THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. IN FACT, LOCALLY SEVERAL INCHES  
OF ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED AND ESPECIALLY AREAS OF  
MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND THIS  
IS WHERE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS LOCALLY INDICATED A  
MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GOING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MEANWHILE HAS PORTIONS THIS AREA ALSO  
HIGHLIGHTED IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING THROUGH  
TONIGHT.  
 
MEANWHILE, AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE  
VERY HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS, INCLUDING MANY AREAS OF THE  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE MIDWEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL  
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 90S TO LOW 100S, AND WITH THE HIGH  
HUMIDITY, THIS WILL PROMOTE DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT INDICES OF THAT  
MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 105 TO 110 DEGREES. SOME MAJOR MIDWEST CITIES  
TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS INCLUDE MINNEAPOLIS, MN; CHICAGO, IL; AND  
ST. LOUIS, MO. SOME OF THIS HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE  
ARRIVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY INCLUDING NEW  
ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL  
INTO THE 90S.  
 
THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPING ALSO FOR THE GULF COAST  
STATES AND ESPECIALLY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BY  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF  
OF MEXICO AND THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HELP TO  
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL  
BE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVERALL AS THE REGION HAS BEEN DRY AND IS  
LOCALLY IN A DROUGHT. HOWEVER, SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE  
EXPECTED, AND THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE VERY CLOSELY MONITORED FOR  
FLASH FLOODING SHOULD HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.  
 
THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD MEANWHILE CONTINUE TO  
LIFT NORTH UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WITH THIS WILL BE A  
SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL  
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTHERN  
AND EASTERN ARIZONA, SOUTHEAST UTAH, COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. THIS  
MOISTURE ARRIVAL IS WELL AHEAD OF THE TYPICAL ONSET OF THE MONSOON  
SEASON, BE IT SHOULD BE LARGELY BENEFICIAL AS IT WILL HELP TO  
ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND WILDFIRE CONCERNS.  
NEVERTHELESS, THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONCERNS FOR  
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS  
HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF  
THIS REGION.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST, A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE  
EVOLVING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL ALLOW  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO  
COOL SUBSTANTIALLY AND BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT, HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
THERE WILL ALSO BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH MAY  
ALSO RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.  
 
ORRISON  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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