709  
FXUS01 KWBC 170819  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
418 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SUN JUN 17 2018 - 12Z TUE JUN 19 2018  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF  
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...  
 
...CONTINUED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE GREAT BASIN AND  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY...  
 
...DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY ON  
SUNDAY AND THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY...  
 
A SLOWLY MOVING FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE  
PLAINS AND INTO THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WILL BE THE  
MAIN WEATHER CAUSER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR THE MIDWEST  
AND THE PLAINS, HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON  
SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. SLIGHT RISKS OF FLASH  
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED MODERATE RISK OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND  
PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN, WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY  
FALLEN OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT  
CURRENTLY IN CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.  
BY MONDAY EVENING, LEADING TO RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH  
FLOODING AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THERE AS WELL.  
 
FARTHER WEST, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PLUS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL  
LEAD TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE,  
PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT  
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN EFFECT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE IN THOSE AREAS.  
 
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY  
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES IN THE CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN U.S. WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND  
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN  
EFFECT FOR THE CITIES OF CHICAGO AND ST. LOUIS. HEAT WILL BUILD IN  
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST BY MONDAY, WITH RECORD HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S POSSIBLE THERE.  
 
ELSEWHERE, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH TROPICAL  
MOISTURE NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THERE BY  
MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE TEXAS  
COAST ON MONDAY, AND MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY, SO CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE  
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, BUT  
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE OR CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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