630  
FXUS01 KWBC 172000  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
359 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
VALID 00Z MON JUN 18 2018 - 00Z WED JUN 20 2018  
 
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS  
OF FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
AND MIDWEST EAST TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE  
WEEK...  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...  
 
...DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
MIDWEST ON MONDAY WHILE ALSO SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY  
AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD...  
 
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MANY AREAS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDWEST AND  
ALSO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MULTIPLE WAVES  
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT UP ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS VERY SLOWLY  
SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BE SEVERE DURING ESPECIALLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,  
AND THERE WILL ALSO BE CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE  
MULTI-DAY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AXIS OF  
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL TEND TO BE SETTLING FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED  
TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NEVERTHELESS, LOCALLY SEVERAL INCHES  
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, AND WITH THE REGIONAL CONCERNS FOR FLASH  
FLOODING, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED SLIGHT AND  
MODERATE RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH THE MODERATE RISK  
FOCUSED ON THE HIGHLY SENSITIVE AREAS OF EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA,  
NORTHERN WISCONSIN, AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN GOING  
THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER  
MEANWHILE HAS PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER.  
 
MEANWHILE, AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL SEE  
VERY HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS WHILE ALSO EXPANDING OFF TO THE EAST TO INCLUDE THE OHIO  
VALLEY, MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THESE AREAS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S,  
BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY, IT WILL FEEL AS HOT AS  
100 TO 110 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS  
ARE IN EFFECT LOCALLY TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.  
 
THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPING QUICKLY FOR THE START  
OF THE NEW WEEK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION, AND  
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN  
OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH OF LOW  
PRESSURE WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE  
REGION. THIS WILL BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION  
AS IT HAS BEEN QUITE DRY AND THE AREA IS LOCALLY IN A DROUGHT.  
HOWEVER, SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, AND THIS AREA WILL  
NEED TO BE VERY CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD  
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST, A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL  
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN ROCKIES AND  
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TOO  
AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED. SOME  
FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL.  
 
ORRISON  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page