319  
FXUS01 KWBC 180816  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
415 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2018  
 
VALID 12Z MON JUN 18 2018 - 12Z WED JUN 20 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR THE PLAINS TO  
THE NORTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF A FRONT...  
   
..HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE TEXAS COAST
 
 
...DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES FOR THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AND  
SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST...  
 
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S.  
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUE INTO THE NORTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEAST, AND THERE ARE SLIGHT  
RISKS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING FOR THAT REGION ON  
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD, STORMS  
WILL SPREAD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.  
 
FARTHER WEST, THE FRONT IS STALLED, AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO  
LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND  
CENTRAL PLAINS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. A MODERATE  
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE FRONT  
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. STORMS ELSEWHERE IN THOSE REGIONS COULD ALSO  
CONTAIN FLASH FLOODING AND BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY.  
 
EVEN FARTHER WEST, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
ARE EXPECTING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH AN  
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE AREA. THIS RAIN OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD  
LEAD TO FLOODING THERE, AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST.  
 
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LINGER NEAR THE TEXAS  
COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH  
LEVELS OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD SEVERAL INCHES OF  
RAIN THERE. THIS RAIN COULD BE BENEFICIAL FOR AREAS IN DROUGHT,  
BUT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS  
PRODUCE A HIGH RAINFALL RATES OR TRAIN OVER ONE AREA.  
 
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD  
TO HEAT INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY, AS WELL AS INTO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT  
THOSE AREAS, WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS REMAINING THROUGH MONDAY  
FOR THE CITIES OF ST. LOUIS AND CHICAGO.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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