042  
FXUS01 KWBC 190813  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
412 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2018  
 
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 19 2018 - 12Z THU JUN 21 2018  
 
...FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL  
PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FORECAST ALONG AND NEAR THE TEXAS  
COAST...  
 
...HEAT CONTINUES FOR THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO  
MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...  
 
A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH  
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC,  
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL  
LOW PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,  
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED IN THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STORMS COULD BE  
SEVERE, AND A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING  
IS IN EFFECT AS WELL. SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND  
FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF THERE ALONG THE FRONT,  
WITH SLIGHT RISKS OF FLASH FLOODING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND A  
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY.  
 
FARTHER SOUTH, SUMMERTIME SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF  
THE FRONT FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE  
SOUTHEAST, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE  
NOT EXPECTED THERE. AND FARTHER WEST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN  
PLAINS, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS WELL AS HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LEAD  
TO MORE RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF  
THE WEEK. AS SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED, AND BECAUSE  
PORTIONS OF THIS REGION HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT ALREADY,  
MODERATE RISKS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE IN EFFECT ON TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
ANOTHER DAY OF HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON  
TUESDAY, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. HEAT  
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND  
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA, AND LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND  
ILLINOIS, WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE ST. LOUIS  
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS  
CLOUDS INCREASE DUE TO THE FRONT. HEAT ALSO BUILDS INTO THE WEST  
BY WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE IN THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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