766  
FXUS01 KWBC 230803  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
402 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 23 2018 - 12Z MON JUN 25 2018  
 
...ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY...  
 
...INCREASING THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON  
SUNDAY...  
 
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO  
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...  
 
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS AREAS OF THE FOUR CORNERS BACK  
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA..  
 
WHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY CONSIDERABLY  
WEAKENS, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT BACK TO AN IMPRESSIVE ARRAY OF  
DISTURBANCES CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SUCH  
A CONGLOMERATE OF ENERGY SHOULD ORGANIZE FURTHER RESULTING IN A  
WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY  
SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD ERUPT WITHIN THE  
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  
THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER PRESENTS AN  
ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS DOWN  
INTO THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF OKLAHOMA. PRIMARY HAZARDS SHOULD BE  
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO  
BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION,  
FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO POSE ISSUES, PARTICULARLY OVER MUCH OF  
KANSAS WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING A  
24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING MONDAY MORNING. OF COURSE, ISOLATED POCKETS  
OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS EITHER STALL OR  
REPEAT OVER SIMILAR LOCATIONS.  
 
BEFORE THIS PRIMARY EVENT TAKES SHAPE, IT WILL PROVE TO REMAIN  
ACTIVE OVER A COUPLE OTHER SECTORS OF THE COUNTRY ON SATURDAY.  
FIRST, A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE ENCOMPASSING EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH  
THE OZARKS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN AN  
IMPETUS FOR AN ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION. A SLIGHT RISK FOR  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHICH  
COVERS LOCATIONS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE  
ATLANTA METRO AREA. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTERCEPTING THIS  
FRONT, SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES MAY UNFOLD WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS ARE OBSERVED. ELSEWHERE, AHEAD OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW  
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO  
AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND.  
 
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL PROMOTE  
RATHER HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
THIS SHOULD INITIALLY FOCUS FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA WEST-NORTHWARD  
INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH EVENTUAL EXPANSION INTO THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY. CURRENTLY, EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS  
AND HEAT ADVISORIES SPAN THESE FORMER REGIONS AS EXPECTED HIGH  
TEMPERATURES SIT AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. AS USUAL,  
THE MOST EXTREME HEAT WILL CONCENTRATE OVER DEATH VALLEY,  
CALIFORNIA WHERE A HIGH OF 120 DEGREES IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. IN  
ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD HEAT, A WILDFIRE CONCERN IS IN PLACE  
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AS WELL AS OVER PATCHES OF NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA. THE MOST PRONOUNCED THREAT SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN  
UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA WHERE A CRITICAL RISK FOR WILDFIRE  
PRODUCTION IS ADVERTISED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. THIS  
TENDS TO BE COLLOCATED WITH WHERE EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE  
REMAINED A MAJOR CONCERN.  
 
RUBIN-OSTER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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