768  
FXUS01 KWBC 250759  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
359 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2018  
 
VALID 12Z MON JUN 25 2018 - 12Z WED JUN 27 2018  
 
...A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS  
THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...  
   
..HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE CAROLINAS
 
 
A FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CAROLINAS OVER  
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTIVE  
ACTIVITY. ON MONDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE  
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS  
OKLAHOMA WILL ALSO ASSIST IN FIRING OFF THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS  
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE CAROLINAS AND  
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR HEAVY  
RAINFALL--INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE AREAS  
OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT--WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY  
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE SURFACE  
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY  
TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SLIGHT  
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY MOSTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE  
A THREAT FOR THESE AREAS IN ADDITION TO SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE CONTINUOUS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING  
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM  
PERIOD. AS THE FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THESE STATES, THERE WILL BE  
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO TAP FROM. THUS, STEADY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY  
IS EXPECTED--AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH AT LEAST  
TUESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT--THOUGH ONLY  
FOR TODAY.  
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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