958  
FXUS01 KWBC 250807  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
406 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2018  
 
VALID 12Z MON JUN 25 2018 - 12Z WED JUN 27 2018  
 
...A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS  
THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...  
   
..HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE CAROLINAS
 
 
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE  
CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ON MONDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ALONG  
A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS  
OKLAHOMA WILL ALSO ASSIST IN FIRING OFF THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS  
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE  
CAROLINAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR HEAVY  
RAINFALL--INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE AREAS OF  
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT--WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY IN  
THE MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO  
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY, SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND  
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MOSTLY  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN PARTS  
OF THE OHIO VALLEY. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR THESE  
AREAS IN ADDITION TO SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE CONTINUOUS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING  
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM  
PERIOD. AS THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THESE STATES,  
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL FUEL CONVECTION THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM  
PERIOD. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A THREAT, THOUGH ONLY FOR  
TODAY.  
 
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND  
CENTRAL PLAINS IN ADDITION TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC  
TODAY. IN FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALMOST 10-15 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH MAINE  
AND THE INTERIOR OF NEW ENGLAND. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL  
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL  
STILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC.  
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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