209  
FXUS01 KWBC 271959  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
358 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU JUN 28 2018 - 00Z SAT JUN 30 2018  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH  
CENTRAL U.S. ON THURSDAY...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST WITH 2-3 INCHES  
OF RAIN POSSIBLE...  
 
...HOT TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S., SPREADING  
TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...  
 
...FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND  
SOUTHWESTERN STATES...  
 
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN U.S., A  
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY,  
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE--AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING WILL BE IN EFFECT THERE ON THURSDAY AS  
WELL, SINCE RAINFALL OVER 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALLY  
HIGHER AMOUNTS.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING THROUGH THE LOWER  
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON  
THURSDAY. NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS LOW, HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHEAST, WITH 2-3 INCHES OF  
RAIN FORECAST. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THERE THROUGH THURSDAY.  
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE  
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT, DRYING THE  
ATMOSPHERE AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES. SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE  
SOUTHEAST, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. STORMS COULD BE SEVERE,  
ESPECIALLY FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN THE CENTRAL  
U.S., WHICH WILL LEAD TO HOT TEMPERATURES THERE, EVEN ABOVE  
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES  
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY, WITH  
TEMPERATURES UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE; A FEW RECORD HIGH  
TEMPERATURES COULD BE SET THERE. BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES OF 10-15  
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE FORECAST IN THE MIDWEST. HEAT INDICES  
WILL BE OVER 100 DEGREES SOUTH OF THESE AREAS AS WELL. WIDESPREAD  
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST, WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS  
OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI, INCLUDING THE KANSAS CITY AREA.  
 
AS HOT, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES IN PORTIONS OF THE WEST, AND WIND  
INCREASES NEAR A FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE RIGHT FOR WILDFIRES TO  
FORM. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY THE ONGOING DROUGHT IN THE AREA.  
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED PORTIONS OF THE GREAT  
BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST AS HAVING A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER  
ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN  
EFFECT FOR THIS REGION AS WELL.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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