801  
FXUS01 KWBC 281956  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
356 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2018  
 
VALID 00Z FRI JUN 29 2018 - 00Z SUN JUL 01 2018  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY  
NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS...  
 
...HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL U.S., SPREADING  
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...  
 
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, A SURFACE LOW, AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY  
WILL ALL COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY  
EVENING AND NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE RISKS OF BOTH  
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER AND HERE AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER  
RESPECTIVELY. HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS, THOUGH  
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THOUGH STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE  
MOVING QUICKLY, FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR OVER AREAS WITH LOW  
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (THAT CANNOT HANDLE VERY MUCH RAINFALL). MORE  
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. ON  
FRIDAY, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN EFFECT.  
 
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS THERE. A SLIGHT  
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST  
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE ON THE  
INCREASE IN THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT  
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD END IN THE NORTHEAST  
BY THURSDAY EVENING.  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL LEAD TO  
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDWEST  
ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORIES WITH SOME EXCESSIVE HEAT  
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH PARTS OF THE PLAINS,  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE HEAT  
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY, AND  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COULD BREAK RECORDS IN PORTIONS OF THE  
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. ANOTHER HOT SPOT IS FORECAST IN THE  
INTERIOR OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER  
100 DEGREES. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL USHER  
IN TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN NORTHERN  
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY, SPREADING INTO THE  
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  
 
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER AS WELL AS PREEXISTING DROUGHT  
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRES IN  
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS CRITICAL RISKS OUTLOOKED FOR THIS AREA  
THROUGH FRIDAY, AND WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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