533  
FXUS02 KWBC 010535  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
134 AM EDT SUN JUL 01 2018  
 
VALID 12Z WED JUL 04 2018 - 12Z SUN JUL 08 2018  
   
..OVERVIEW AND WEATHER THREATS/HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
A CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL HEAD  
WESTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING  
OVER CANADA DIPS INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY, BRINGING IN COOLER  
TEMPERATURES (BACK NEAR AVERAGE). MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL  
STATES WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WARMTH FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.  
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY FOCUS AROUND THE UPPER HIGH FROM THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST (IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN OFFSHORE WEAKENING UPPER  
LOW) ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INTO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS ON THE  
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE GULF COAST. BY NEXT  
WEEKEND, PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRECEDE THE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO  
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
 
 
THE LATEST MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINED IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT  
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER HIGH AND GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE  
FEATURES AROUND IT. GIVEN SOME RUN-TO-RUN SHIFTS IN TIMING/TRACK  
OF THESE FEATURES, A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED WITH A  
INCREASED WEIGHTING OF ENSEMBLES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAINTAINED  
GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.  
 
FRACASSO  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS,  
WEATHER GRIDS, QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, AND WINTER WEATHER  
OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES ARE FOUND AT:  
 
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page