841  
FXUS02 KWBC 020524  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
123 AM EDT MON JUL 02 2018  
 
VALID 12Z THU JUL 05 2018 - 12Z MON JUL 09 2018  
   
..OVERVIEW AND WEATHER THREATS/HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
A CLOSED UPPER HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND AS  
UPPER TROUGHING OVER CANADA DIPS INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY,  
BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES (BACK NEAR AVERAGE). MUCH OF THE  
WEST AND CENTRAL STATES WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WARMTH WITH ABOVE  
AVERAGE HEIGHTS OVER THE ENTIRE LOWER 48 EVEN UNDER TROUGHING IN  
THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY FOCUS AROUND THE UPPER HIGH  
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST (IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN OFFSHORE  
WEAKENING UPPER LOW) AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INTO THE  
NORTHEAST AS WELL AS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS  
THE GULF COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW  
AVERAGE. BY THE WEEKEND, PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRECEDE THE FRONT  
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
 
 
THE LATEST MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINED IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT  
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER HIGH AND GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE  
FEATURES AROUND IT. GIVEN SOME RUN-TO-RUN SHIFTS IN TIMING/TRACK  
OF THESE FEATURES, A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED FOR DAYS 3-5  
WITH AN INCREASED WEIGHTING OF ENSEMBLES BY THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT  
WEEK. THIS MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.  
 
FRACASSO  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS,  
WEATHER GRIDS, QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, AND WINTER WEATHER  
OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES ARE FOUND AT:  
 
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
 

 
 
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