252  
FXUS02 KWBC 030636  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
235 AM EDT TUE JUL 03 2018  
 
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 06 2018 - 12Z TUE JUL 10 2018  
   
..OVERVIEW AND WEATHER THREATS/HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER HIGH WILL AGAIN BUILD BACK TOWARD THE EAST NEXT  
WEEK AS BRIEF TROUGHING EXITS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY WITH SOME  
SHOWERS/STORMS PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE. ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GREAT  
AGREEMENT ON A RATHER ZONAL FLOW BY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE  
HEIGHTS FROM COAST TO COAST. THIS SUPPORTS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES NEARLY EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE THE GULF COAST REGION WHERE  
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT UNDERNEATH THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT DAILY  
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING (BUT  
WEAKENING) SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN THE SOUTHWEST, MOISTURE OUT OF  
THE GULF AND ACROSS MEXICO WILL TRY TO YIELD SOME PRECIPITATION  
OVER AZ/NM (GFS/GEFS WERE WETTER THAN THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES)  
WHICH HAVE BEEN IN A SERIOUS DROUGHT.  
 
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
 
 
A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AND SOME OF THE CANADIAN  
OFFERED A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST. TREND CONTINUES TO  
BE QUICKER ACROSS CANADA WITH THE LEAST TROUGH/SFC FRONT BUT  
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. INCREASED  
ENSEMBLE WEIGHTING WAS INFUSED FOR THE LATER PERIODS WHERE SHIFTS  
IN THE UPPER HIGH ORIENTATION AND WITH ROTATING MID-LEVEL  
DISTURBANCES WERE SMOOTHED OUT.  
 
FRACASSO  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS,  
WEATHER GRIDS, QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, AND WINTER WEATHER  
OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES ARE FOUND AT:  
 
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
 

 
 
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