009  
FXUS02 KWBC 031601  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1200 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2018  
 
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 06 2018 - 12Z TUE JUL 10 2018  
   
..OVERVIEW AND WEATHER THREATS/HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING SHOWS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE  
STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH CURRENTLY DOMINATING MUCH OF THE U.S. WILL  
TEMPORARILY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN INTO THE EAST  
COAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OFFER RELIEF FROM THE  
CURRENT HEAT WAVE ESPECIALLY FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST  
THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN BUILDING THE  
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AS A  
CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST LIFTS TOWARDS BRITISH COLUMBIA.  
THIS WILL KEEP THE PRESENCE OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AROUND  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE ALSO  
BRINGING THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC  
TOWARDS WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES  
IN SPEEDS AND AMPLITUDES AS IT ATTEMPTS TO OVERRIDE THE TOP OF THE  
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TELECONNECTION/CLIMATOLOGY  
SUPPORTS A WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WITH A NORTHEAST U.S. TROUGH. THE  
00Z EC MEAN AND THE 06Z GEFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  
 
MEANWHILE. MODELS ARE INDICATING TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH  
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY  
ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE SUBTROPICAL  
HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD, HEAT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE  
INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. WHERE TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES APPEAR  
LIKELY FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO INTERIOR CALIFORNIA. A WEAK COLD  
FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES  
BY THIS WEEKEND.  
   
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
 
 
THE MORNING WPC GRID PACKAGE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z  
ECMWF, 06Z GFS, AND THE 00Z NAEFS WITH MORE OF THEIR ENSEMBLE  
MEANS INCORPORATED ON DAYS 6 AND 7. THE 00Z EC MEAN WAS NOT  
INCLUDED DUE TO COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS.  
 
KONG  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS,  
WEATHER GRIDS, QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, AND WINTER WEATHER  
OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES ARE FOUND AT:  
 
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
 

 
 
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