261  
FXUS01 KWBC 080829  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
412 AM EDT SUN JUL 08 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 08 2018 - 12Z TUE JUL 10 2018  
 
...SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA  
AND MINNESOTA...  
 
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE  
COUNTRY...  
 
...HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE WEST, THOUGH MODERATING  
SOMEWHAT...  
 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, WILL BE POSSIBLE  
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY  
TRACKS EASTWARD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED  
CONVECTION, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER  
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA, MINNESOTA AND  
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK  
IDENTIFIED FOR THIS AREA, PLEASE REFER TO THE WEBPAGE FOR  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE AREA OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE. WIDESPREAD  
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES AS DEEP  
MOISTURE DRAWS INTO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE  
ALSO MOVES INTO TEXAS, AND THESE REGIONS WILL SEE RAIN THAT IS  
MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS  
EXPECTED, WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AS SOME STORMS PRODUCE  
LOTS OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS  
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD WILL RESULT IN  
INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. CONDITIONS MAY  
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE ACROSS  
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK AREA IN EFFECT.  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL  
STORM STRENGTH TODAY AND DEVELOP INTO A HURRICANE CHRIS BY LATE  
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH ITS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, RAIN BANDS MAY KEEP PORTIONS OF THE  
MID-ATLANTIC WET THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE AROUND  
1 INCH, POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH SURF AND RIP  
CURRENTS ARE LIKELY THERE AS WELL. PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.  
 
THE HOT AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST WILL  
SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HOWEVER FORECAST  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE.  
SOME EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ON SUNDAY IN  
NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA, BUT WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD. WARMER THAN  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH  
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES  
ABOVE AVERAGE BY MONDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO  
SOUTHEAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE, WITH SHOWERS,  
THUNDERSTORMS, AND CLOUDS. IN FACT, WITH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE  
COUNTRY WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE SOUTHERN TIER SLIGHTLY COOLER  
THAN NORMAL, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 90 DEGREES ON  
MONDAY ALMOST EVERYWHERE, OTHER THAN THE COOLER PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
AND WARMER SOUTHWEST, AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 
CAMPBELL/TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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