849  
FXUS01 KWBC 101958  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018  
 
VALID 00Z WED JUL 11 2018 - 00Z FRI JUL 13 2018  
 
...TROPICAL STORM CHRIS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND LINGER OFF THE  
CAROLINAS THROUGH TOMORROW...  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS  
AFTERNOON...  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...  
 
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE  
SOMETIME THIS EVENING WHILE LINGERING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA  
COAST. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IT FARTHER OUT TO  
SEA--THUS MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE WELL  
OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER, RIP CURRENTS, STRONG SURF AND COASTAL  
FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT ALONG THE COASTLINE FROM THE  
MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEAST. FOR THE MOST CURRENT INFORMATION  
REGARDING CHRIS, VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER  
(WWW.HURRICANES.GOV) AND THE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR INDIVIDUAL  
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.  
 
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND  
NORTH DAKOTA. A STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGHOUT THESE REGIONS  
AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN  
FIRING OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO LATE EVENING AND INTO  
TONIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK  
OF SEVERE WEATHER SPECIFICALLY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST  
MONTANA. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND  
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE  
ACROSS MOST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST--WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH  
FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE EVERY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE TERRAIN COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN  
ADDITION TO FLOOD PRONE AREAS. BY THURSDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL  
CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH  
FLOODING IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE SLIGHT  
RISK SHIFTING EASTWARD BY THURSDAY ALONG THE ROCKIES.  
 
ELSEWHERE, THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP OVER THE PLAINS  
WILL ALSO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. ANOTHER COLD  
FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY  
AND WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT  
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING ALONG THE SOUTHWARD TREK OF THE  
FRONT INTO THURSDAY.  
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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