445  
FXUS01 KWBC 121952  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
351 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2018  
 
VALID 00Z FRI JUL 13 2018 - 00Z SUN JUL 15 2018  
 
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...  
 
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE  
MID-ATLANTIC AND AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF STATES  
INTO THIS WEEKEND...  
 
...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST  
INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER  
MISSIPPI VALLEY STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING  
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED  
FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW MOVING, AND  
COULD RESULT IN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ON TOP OF ALREADY  
SATURATED SOILS. AS A RESULT, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED  
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND  
FAR NORTHWEST IOWA. THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER ALSO HAS OUTLINED  
THIS AREA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
SOUTH OF THIS SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM, A SURGE OF WARM, MOIST  
AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS HAS LED TO EXCESSIVELY HOT AND  
HUMID CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT  
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND  
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSISIPPI VALLEY FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTS  
NORTHWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE TERRAIN COULD LEAD TO FLASH  
FLOODING, WITH A MAGNIFIED THREAT IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS. WPC HAS A  
MAJORITY OF THIS REGION IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT  
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF  
STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT  
SOUTHWARD AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE  
FEEDING INTO THIS REGION ALONG WILL SLOW SELL MOTION, HEAVY  
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE - ESPECIALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND  
GEORGIA. WPC HAS IDENTIFIED THIS AREA AS HAVING A MARGINAL RISK  
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  
 
HURRICANE CHRIS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND  
CONTINUES TO TRAVEL NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT  
THIS SYSTEM TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND OVER THE COMING  
DAY, BUT SHOULD NO LONGER POSE A THREAT TO THE CONTINENTAL UNITED  
STATES. FOR THE LATEST POSITION AND IMPACTS, VISIT THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER (WWW.HURRICANES.GOV).  
 
WIX  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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