712  
FXUS01 KWBC 141812  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
211 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SUN JUL 15 2018 - 00Z TUE JUL 17 2018  
 
...MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO BRING HEAVY RAIN FOR THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...  
   
..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
 
 
...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
SOUTHEAST...  
   
..HEAT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
 
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE LOOMED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST  
 
EACH AFTERNOON THE LAST FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS  
WEEKEND. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
BY SUNDAY, THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND  
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN IN ADDITION TO INCREASING IN THE  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A  
CONCERN DUE TO TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS. SEE  
WPC'S EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE  
PLAINS WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE  
TRANSPORTED TO THIS AREA AND FUEL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY  
 
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MOSTLY OVER  
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
ADDITIONALLY, A MARGINAL  
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. BY  
SUNDAY, THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS ANOTHER INCOMING FRONT WILL SWEEP  
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOSTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY  
AND THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON TAP AND  
INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT AIDING  
IN FUELING THESE THUNDERSTORMS. A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING  
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CAN EXPECT  
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND OVER 100 OVER THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY, HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT  
WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE IN THESE REGIONS. WITH THE HOT AND  
DRY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS,  
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN IN SOME AREAS OF THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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