618  
FXUS01 KWBC 151720  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
119 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018  
 
VALID 00Z MON JUL 16 2018 - 00Z WED JUL 18 2018  
   
..HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST
 
 
...COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST MONDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY...  
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE A DAILY  
OCCURRENCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE  
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES, WHICH IS IN THE VICINITY OF  
SURFACE FRONTS AND TROUGHS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH  
TUESDAY. BECAUSE OF MOISTURE LEVELS BEING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR JULY,  
LOW TEMPERATURES COULD REACH RECORD WARM VALUES ACROSS LARGE  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. THE  
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE PROMPTED HEAT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED  
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND MONDAY  
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.  
BOTH THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE AN ENHANCED RISK  
FOR HEAVY RAINS ON TUESDAY AS STRONGER SYSTEMS ALOFT APPROACH FROM  
THEIR NORTHWEST AND WEST RESPECTIVELY.  
 
TO THE WEST, A FLAT, BUT STRENGTHENING, RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS  
EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS  
SHOULD ALLOW DISTURBANCES NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE U.S./MEXICAN  
BORDER TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST, ENHANCING RAINFALL WITHIN THE  
SOUTHWEST MONSOON ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WESTERN AND  
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS  
THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE PROSPECT FOR  
HEAVY RAINFALL SLOWLY FADES NEAR AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY TRAPPED IN  
WESTERN COLORADO, WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF HEAVY RAINS BEING  
CONFINED TO SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.  
 
ELSEWHERE, THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST IS  
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY  
AS IT TAPS POOL OF ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH -- A SLIGHT  
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS HERE ON TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF  
THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME MILDER ACROSS THE GREAT  
LAKES AND NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER  
PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER 48 IS GENERALLY SUMMER-LIKE  
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH VIRTUALLY NO RECORD HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES OR  
RECORD COOL LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST.  
 
ROTH  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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