926  
FXUS01 KWBC 192010  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
410 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2018  
 
VALID 00Z FRI JUL 20 2018 - 00Z SUN JUL 22 2018  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS  
EVENING AND TONIGHT...  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRIDAY...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING/TONIGHT  
AND OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE  
EASTERN GULF COAST...  
 
...EXTREME HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND  
WESTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD AS A  
WARM FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  
 
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES  
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE COMING DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE  
AMOUNT OF WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARDS FROM THE GULF  
OF MEXICO TOWARDS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, BECOMING THE EPICENTER  
FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY.  
BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
TO THE EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL AS ALONG IT'S  
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL FEATURES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS  
OUTLINED MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS THE MIDDLE AND  
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS HAVING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE  
STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, THEY  
HAVE OUTLINED MUCH OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS BEING IN  
AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE  
MID-ATLANTIC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. ALONG WITH THE STRONG  
STORMS, HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. THE WEATHER PREDICTION  
CENTER HAS OUTLINED A PORTION OF THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY AS BEING IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEEING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  
PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE A  
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.  
 
MEANWHILE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN  
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH  
FRIDAY EVENING, TOO. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE  
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE  
EVENING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
THE STRONG PULL OF WARM-MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE  
CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT CONCERNS ACROSS THIS REGION  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE  
HEAT WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. HIGH HEAT ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS WELL.  
FURTHERMORE, DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH HIGH WINDS ARE LEADING TO  
RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND  
SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
WIX  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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