815  
FXUS01 KWBC 281950  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
349 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SUN JUL 29 2018 - 00Z TUE JUL 31 2018  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY...  
 
...DANGEROUS HEAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA  
THROUGH SUNDAY, MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO START THE  
WORK WEEK...  
 
...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR COASTAL REGIONS ALONG  
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
WEEKEND...  
 
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF A  
STUBBORN RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE  
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE  
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR BOTH  
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING,  
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE HIGH  
PLAINS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A REGION FROM  
SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO CENTRAL KANSAS WITHIN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK  
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THIS REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.  
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK  
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL  
MISSOURI ON SUNDAY AS WELL. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER ALSO HAS  
OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE  
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS. PLEASE REFER TO THE OUTLOOKS BY THESE CENTERS FOR  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  
 
THE RELENTLESS HEAT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF CALIFORNIA  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. NUMEROUS  
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH  
SUNDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DANGEROUS,  
MULTI-DAY, HEAT WAVE WILL ALSO BEGIN BUILDING UP THE WEST COAST  
THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES  
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COULD BE  
ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND EXCESSIVE HEAT  
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE  
FORECAST TO SOAR TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY. DUE TO CONTINUED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER AND  
POOR AIR QUALITY WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
WESTERN STATES.  
 
MEANWHILE, A LINGERING FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN  
SEABOARD WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE  
WEEKEND, MAINLY ALONG COASTAL REGIONS. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD  
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE, BUT THE BEST CHANCE  
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE  
EASTERN CAROLINAS AS WELL AS ACROSS FLORIDA. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL TAPER  
OFF BY SUNDAY AS THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY  
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.  
 
SANTORELLI/WIX  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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