238  
FXUS01 KWBC 290834  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
433 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 29 2018 - 12Z TUE JUL 31 2018  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY, SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO  
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY..  
 
...DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND  
SOUTHWEST...  
 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL U.S. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY. A  
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR AN ENVIRONMENT  
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,  
PARTICULARLY ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH  
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A TRAILING  
PORTION BANKED UP AGAINST THE COLORADO ROCKIES. FOR SUNDAY, BOTH  
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND WPC HAVE MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISKS  
HIGHLIGHTED FROM OKLAHOMA/KANSAS AND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS. ON MONDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN BECOMES A CONCERN ALONG  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, WHERE WPC HAS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING  
ON THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. PLEASE REFER TO THE  
OUTLOOKS BY THESE CENTERS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  
 
TO THE EAST, A LINGERING FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
IN THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
SOUTHEAST AND DEEP SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY TO LOCALLY  
EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS TROPICAL  
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY. UNSETTLED WEATHER  
RETURNS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY AS THIS  
BOUNDARY BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWARD AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED  
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  
 
MEANWHILE, A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE REMAINS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA, AND WILL BEGIN BUILDING NORTHWARD  
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NUMEROUS  
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS, WATCHES, AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR  
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR CALIFORNIA, AND THE NORTHWEST. AFTERNOON HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS REGION ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER  
90S TO LOW 100S, WHICH IS AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL. EXPECT LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH  
DAILY HIGH MINIMUM RECORDS POSSIBLE UP AND DOWN THE WEST COAST.  
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS,  
WILL ALSO INCREASE FIRE WEATHER THREATS AND EXACERBATE ONGOING  
FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES, WITH POOR AIR QUALITY A  
CONCERN AS WELL.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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