376  
FXUS01 KWBC 041948  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
347 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SUN AUG 05 2018 - 00Z TUE AUG 07 2018  
 
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW  
ENGLAND THIS EVENING...  
 
...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR  
THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE  
WORK-WEEK....  
 
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH  
THIS EVENING...  
   
..EXCESSIVE HEAT TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
 
 
AFTER A VERY RAINY FEW DAYS ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST, THINGS ARE  
FINALLY STARTING THE DRY OUT. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS NEW ENGLAND,  
WHICH HAS SEEN NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LED THE THE WEATHER  
PREDICTION CENTER TO OUTLINED THIS REGION AS BEING IN A SLIGHT  
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT, AS  
ANY ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS COULD ADD ONTO ALREADY  
SATURATED CONDITIONS AND RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. THE  
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO OUTLINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COASTAL REGIONS OF THE NORTHEAST  
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL.  
 
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY EVOLVING ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL  
CANADA. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND HEAVY RAIN  
POTENTIAL TO PAUSE SOME CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH  
FLOODING, MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED MUCH OF THIS REGION IN A MARGINAL  
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEKEND, HOWEVER PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA ARE OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT  
RISK DURING THIS TIME. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO  
OUTLINED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLASH  
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY,  
INCREASING TO A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, FAR  
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, AND NORTHERN IOWA  
FOR SUNDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY  
MONDAY.  
 
MEANWHILE, VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  
HAVE CONTINUED THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TODAY, WITH  
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE  
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CALIFORNIA STILL IN RED FLAG WARNINGS THROUGH  
THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR A  
PORTION OF THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, CONDITIONS ARE SO  
DRY THAT ANY LIGHTNING COULD SPARK NEW WILDFIRES. AIR QUALITY  
ALERTS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND  
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS ONGOING WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO INFUSE COPIOUS  
AMOUNTS OF SMOKE INTO THE AIR. AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS BACK  
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE COMING DAYS, EXPECT THE EXCESSIVE  
HEAT TO MAKE A RETURN. EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS  
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR SUNDAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO WELL  
OVER 100 DEGREES.  
 
CAMPBELL  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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