825  
FXUS02 KWBC 101601  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1200 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2018  
 
VALID 12Z MON AUG 13 2018 - 12Z FRI AUG 17 2018  
   
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
A PAIR OF CLOSED MID-UPPER LOWS CENTERED NEAT THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL  
FOCUS A HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT. BOTH FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO  
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO OPEN WAVES WITH GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD  
MIGRATION MID-LATER WEEK AS A POTENTIALLY AMPIFIED NEW TROUGH/LOW  
DIGS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES/MIDWEST. HAVE LEANED ON A MORE  
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION GIVEN RECENT FLOW HISTORY. THIS IS CHAMPIONED  
MORE BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES.ACROSS THE  
DESERT SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION, MODELS ADVERTISE A RETURN OF  
A 594-DM MID-LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE/LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
ACCORDINGLY, THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY  
DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND GEFS/ECMWF  
ENSEMBLE MEANS.  
 
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AND HAZARDS
 
 
THE MOST FOCUSED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LINGER NEAR/AHEAD OF  
SLOW TO EJECT CLOSED LOWS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AND BACK  
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S, TO BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPSTREAM KICKER  
MOVING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES/MIDWEST. THE MAIN EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL THREAT MAY FURTHER FOCUS ALONG ASSOCIATED/WAVY FRONTS  
THAT WILL POOL DEPEENED MOISTURE AND TAP INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE,  
DECENT DAILY CHANCES FOR MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP  
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT  
BASIN/ROCKIES.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500 MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDEXES ARE FOUND AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 
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