163  
FXUS01 KWBC 121955  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
355 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2018  
 
VALID 00Z MON AUG 13 2018 - 00Z WED AUG 15 2018  
   
..MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN WEST TEXAS
 
 
...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND  
MID-ATLANTIC...  
 
A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE THE WET  
PATTERN OF MOST OF THE STATE IN ADDITION TO OTHER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL  
CONCENTRATE IN THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS TODAY WHERE THERE IS A  
MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FOR BOTH DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW  
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A  
SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO PLAY A  
ROLE IN FIRING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO  
VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO  
OCCUR IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A  
SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF VIRGINIA  
AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BY TOMORROW, AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL  
LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER  
ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND  
NORTHEAST--MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT.  
 
HEAT-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST,  
GREAT BASIN AND PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS  
THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING--ESPECIALLY IN FAVORABLE TERRAIN  
AND URBAN REGIONS. THE HEAT WAVE THAT HAS IMPACTED THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS  
EASTERN MONTANA AND PARTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER, A  
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF BY TOMORROW. ON  
TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE 90S FOR  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN  
CRITICAL ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN THROUGH  
MONDAY.  
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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