860  
FXUS01 KWBC 132000  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2018  
 
VALID 00Z TUE AUG 14 2018 - 00Z THU AUG 16 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS  
AND PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...  
 
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST OF THE NEW  
ENGLAND, THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A SURFACE  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH  
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW, WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION  
INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHERE  
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE  
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IN THIS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.  
FURTHERMORE, EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, SOUTHERN NEW YORK, AND  
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY ARE OUTLINED IN A MODERATE RISK THROUGH  
TONIGHT, HIGHLIGHTING THAT RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE  
GREATEST IN THIS AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ALSO  
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS REGION. THE THREAT FOR  
FLASH FLOODING WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER  
LEVEL LOW DRIVING THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS INLAND AND LOSES STRENGTH,  
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE.  
 
MEANWHILE, THE BACK SIDE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM  
WILL STRETCH BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HERE ANOTHER STRONG  
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COUPLE WITH A SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND ALLOW FOR THE STRONG ADVECTION OF WARM AND  
MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS  
WILL ALSO BE AN EPICENTER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. THE WEATHER PREDICTION  
CENTER HAS OUTLINED A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS  
AS BEING IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH  
FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS AREA WILL TRANSITION SLIGHTLY  
EASTWARD AND ENCOMPASS A PORTION OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
ELSEWHERE, WEAK MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN  
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH  
THIS EVENING. AIR QUALITY ALERTS ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS A  
LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS MUCH OF INLAND  
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO AS WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO INFUSE THE  
AIR WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SMOKE. RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE  
WEATHER WATCHES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NEVADA, AS WELL AS  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WYOMING.  
 
WIX  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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