585  
FXUS01 KWBC 160745  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
344 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2018  
 
VALID 12Z THU AUG 16 2018 - 12Z SAT AUG 18 2018  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN OHIO AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...  
 
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST  
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HAVE A WAVE OF LOW  
PRESSURE MOVE FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/WESTERN OHIO  
VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY  
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR  
THE BOUNDARY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL MOVE  
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL  
GULF COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY  
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO  
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THAT  
WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF  
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF  
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY MOVE  
EASTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING AS  
WELL. THE ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL LIKEWISE MOVE  
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY  
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.  
 
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL  
AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A  
THIRD REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING MOVING  
INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.  
THE ENERGY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION  
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THAT WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE, WEAK MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND  
DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON  
INTO THE LATE EVENING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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