712  
FXUS01 KWBC 162012  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
411 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2018  
 
VALID 00Z FRI AUG 17 2018 - 00Z SUN AUG 19 2018  
 
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING OVER  
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...  
 
...MONSOONAL RAINS BRING FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE  
SOUTHWEST...  
   
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
 
 
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM COASTAL NEW  
ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FROM  
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FLOWING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THIS FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY, ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS  
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AS  
WILL THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A REGION ENCOMPASSING NORTHEAST  
OKLAHOMA, SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, AND FAR  
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS BEING IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEEING SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER  
HAS ALSO OUTLINED AN AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS BEING IN A SLIGHT RISK  
OF SEEING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.  
THIS SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO  
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA FOR FRIDAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND  
WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. FLASH  
FLOOD WATCHES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND  
SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. GIVEN THE  
STRONG PULL OF WARM AIR INTO THE REGION, HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO  
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
MEANWHILE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE  
SOUTHWEST. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS LIKELY HERE THROUGH TONIGHT, AS  
IS OUTLINED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S SLIGHT RISK  
FORECAST WHICH ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE REGION. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES  
AND WARNINGS ARE ALSO ONGOING HERE. THIS SAME AIRMASS WILL CAUSE  
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE  
WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
WESTERN U.S., HOWEVER A VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL PREVENT  
MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. ANY LIGHTNING  
THAT OCCURS OUT OF THESE STORMS COULD EASILY INDUCE NEW WILDFIRES,  
PLUS THUNDERSTORM WINDS COULD CAUSE THEM TO QUICKLY SPREAD. RED  
FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT  
ACROSS MUCH OF OREGON, IDAHO, SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND WESTERN  
MONTANA AS A RESULT. FURTHERMORE, ONGOING WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO  
POLLUTE THE AIR WITH EXTENSIVE AMOUNTS OF SMOKE. AIR QUALITY  
ALERTS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, AS WELL AS MUCH  
OF OREGON, WASHINGTON, IDAHO, AND NORTHWEST MONTANA.  
 
WIX  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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