664  
FXUS01 KWBC 170737  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
336 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2018  
 
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 17 2018 - 12Z SUN AUG 19 2018  
 
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING FOR THE  
NORTHEAST WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING AREAS FROM THE  
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...  
 
...MONSOONAL RAINS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWEST...  
   
..FIRE WEATHER CONTINUE FOR THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH TONIGHT
 
 
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS REGIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO  
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. A  
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD COMBINED WITH WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY  
FLOW PULLING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD WILL CREATE AN  
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO  
VALLEY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SURFACE  
FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND WHERE  
THERE IS A CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, A SLIGHT  
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE  
NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL CONCENTRATE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEY. BY SATURDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE  
MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS--CREATING MORE ROUNDS OF  
CONVECTION ACROSS THESE REGIONS ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.  
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEAST; HOWEVER  
MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. BY  
SUNDAY, AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND EAST, PRECIPITATION WILL  
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE CONTINUING ACROSS  
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
 
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH  
WILL FIRE OFF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THIS REGION THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN FOR AREAS IN FAVORABLE  
TERRAIN AND URBAN REGIONS. CHECK THE LATEST WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OUTLOOK TO SEE WHICH AREAS ARE OF THE MOST CONCERN. FIRE WEATHER  
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR AREAS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRIGGER  
ADDITIONAL FIRES VIA LIGHTNING. GUSTS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS  
COULD ALSO QUICKLY SPREAD FIRES. MOST OF THIS AREA IS UNDER A RED  
FLAG WARNING WHICH EXPIRES TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL  
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THIS REGION BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN MONTANA. BY THE END OF THE  
WEEKEND, THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS CAN BE EXPECTED--WHERE  
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGH  
PLAINS AND A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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