457  
FXUS01 KWBC 290804  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
404 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2018  
 
VALID 12Z WED AUG 29 2018 - 12Z FRI AUG 31 2018  
 
...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CANADIAN  
BORDER IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY...  
 
...FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...  
 
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER PARTS  
OF THE NORTHEAST...  
 
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEGIN TO RESURFACE ACROSS THE WESTERN  
U.S....  
 
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN CANADA,  
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND  
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, DIVING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S., AND A MUCH COLDER  
AIRMASS MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA IN THE NORTHERN U.S.. A  
STRONG SURGE OF WARM, MOIST AIR BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE GULF OF  
MEXICO, WHICH IS CLASHING WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS TO THE NORTH,  
RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING  
EXACERBATED BY A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE  
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND  
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BOTH  
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAVE  
OUTLINED A NARROW REGION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, STRETCHING  
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST, AS HAVING A MARGINAL  
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY, RESPECTIVELY.  
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO OUTLINED ALONG THE CANADIAN  
BORDER IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY, DUE TO IT'S PROXIMITY TO THE LOW  
PRESSURE CENTER AND BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS  
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  
A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN,  
WHERE RECORD FLOODING IS ONGOING ALONG THE KICKAPOO RIVER. EXPECT  
THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO DRIFT SLOWLY  
SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAKE IT  
DIFFICULT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION  
OVER THE COMING DAYS. MEANWHILE, THE DEEP SURGE OF WARM AND HUMID  
AIR TOWARDS THE BOUNDARY WILL COUPLE WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE,  
RESULTING IN A CONTINUED HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF THE  
NORTHEAST, AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ARE UNDER HEAT  
ADVISORIES FOR TODAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE IN THE  
MID AND UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. SOME  
LOCATIONS MAY ALSO MEET OR EXCEED DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES  
TODAY. FURTHERMORE, MANY LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT  
WILL LIKELY MEET OR EXCEED THE RECORD FOR HIGH MINIMUM/MORNING  
TEMPERATURES BOTH THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE U.S., FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STARTING TO  
CREEP BACK INTO THE PICTURE ONCE AGAIN. RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE  
WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WYOMING FOR TODAY AND  
THURSDAY DUE TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND  
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWEST OREGON IS ALSO STILL UNDER AN AIR QUALITY  
ALERT DUE TO SMOKE FROM A NEARBY ONGOING WILDFIRE.  
 
WIX  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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